La Equidad W vs Real Santander W Statistics & Analysis

La Equidad W

Aug 09, 2026 - 20:00

2 1.47

0 1.13

xG Accuracy: 63%

Real Santander W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 La Equidad W La Equidad W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2968908

Closing Odds 1.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result La Equidad W win · La Equidad W 2–0 Real Santander W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Real Santander W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Real Santander W (1X2) by about 15.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
La Equidad W (1X2)	43.3	65.9	-22.6
Draw (1X2)	29.2	22.2	+6.9
Real Santander W (1X2)	27.5	11.8	+15.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	43.3	+4.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	56.7	-4.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.5% on Real Santander W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.8%. The difference — about 15.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
La Equidad W (1X2)	1.37	1.37
Draw (1X2)	4.06	4.06
Real Santander W (1X2)	7.63	7.63
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	2.15
Under 2.5 goals	1.64	1.64

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Femenina
Fixture: La Equidad W vs Real Santander W
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): La Equidad W 1.47 — Real Santander W 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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