Deportivo Cali W vs Millonarios W Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Cali W

Aug 09, 2026 - 20:00

1 1.47

3 1.13

xG Accuracy: 52%

Millonarios W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deportivo Cali W Millonarios W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2968839

Closing Odds 2.3

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Millonarios W win · Deportivo Cali W 1–3 Millonarios W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Cali W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Deportivo Cali W (1X2)	43.3	39.3	+4.0
Draw (1X2)	29.2	29.7	-0.6
Millonarios W (1X2)	27.5	31.0	-3.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	39.7	+8.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	60.3	-8.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.7%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Deportivo Cali W (1X2)	2.3	2.3
Draw (1X2)	3.04	3.04
Millonarios W (1X2)	2.92	2.92
Over 2.5 goals	2.32	2.32
Under 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Femenina
Fixture: Deportivo Cali W vs Millonarios W
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
xG (showing): Deportivo Cali W 1.47 — Millonarios W 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 38.9% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +20.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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