Statistics / Football / Colombia. Liga Femenina / Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Once Caldas W

Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Once Caldas W Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Bucaramanga W Atlético Bucaramanga W
Aug 20, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 74%
Once Caldas W Once Caldas W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Once Caldas W Atlético Bucaramanga W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2968803

Closing Odds 3.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atlético Bucaramanga W win · Atlético Bucaramanga W 2–1 Once Caldas W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Once Caldas W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Once Caldas W (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atlético Bucaramanga W (1X2) 33.4 40.6 -7.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.7 -1.1
Once Caldas W (1X2) 37.0 28.7 +8.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.1 +6.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.9 -6.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Once Caldas W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.7%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atlético Bucaramanga W (1X2) 2.23 2.23 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Once Caldas W (1X2) 3.16 3.16 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Femenina
  • Fixture: Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Once Caldas W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Bucaramanga W 1.26 — Once Caldas W 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 49.1% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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