Real Santander W vs Orsomarso W Statistics & Analysis

Real Santander W

Aug 01, 2026 - 20:30

0 1.12

1 1.48

xG Accuracy: 64%

Orsomarso W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Orsomarso W Orsomarso W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1826856

Closing Odds 3.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Orsomarso W win · Real Santander W 0–1 Orsomarso W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Real Santander W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 12.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Real Santander W (1X2)	27.1	24.5	+2.6
Draw (1X2)	29.1	31.3	-2.3
Orsomarso W (1X2)	43.9	44.2	-0.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	35.3	+12.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	64.7	-12.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.3%. The difference — about 12.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Real Santander W (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Draw (1X2)	2.89	2.89
Orsomarso W (1X2)	2.05	2.05
Over 2.5 goals	2.62	2.62
Under 2.5 goals	1.43	1.43

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Femenina
Fixture: Real Santander W vs Orsomarso W
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 43.9%
xG (showing): Real Santander W 1.12 — Orsomarso W 1.48 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 53.6% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +19.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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