Statistics / Football / Colombia. Liga Femenina / Deportivo Pasto W vs La Equidad W

Deportivo Pasto W vs La Equidad W Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Pasto W Deportivo Pasto W
Aug 02, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 49%
La Equidad W La Equidad W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 La Equidad W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1955873

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Deportivo Pasto W 0–0 La Equidad W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Pasto W (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Pasto W (1X2) by about 11.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Pasto W (1X2) 34.7 23.3 +11.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.2 +2.5
La Equidad W (1X2) 35.6 49.5 -13.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 47.3 +0.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.7 -0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Deportivo Pasto W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.3%. The difference — about 11.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Pasto W (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.33 3.33 0.0
La Equidad W (1X2) 1.83 1.83 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.98 1.98 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Femenina
  • Fixture: Deportivo Pasto W vs La Equidad W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Pasto W 1.29 — La Equidad W 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +1.8 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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