Statistics / Football / Colombia. Liga Femenina / Junior W vs Millonarios W

Junior W vs Millonarios W Statistics & Analysis

Junior W Junior W
Jul 25, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 49%
Millonarios W Millonarios W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Millonarios W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457058

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Junior W 0–0 Millonarios W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Junior W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Junior W (1X2) by about 8.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Junior W (1X2) 23.4 14.9 +8.5
Draw (1X2) 27.6 22.3 +5.3
Millonarios W (1X2) 49.0 62.8 -13.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.9 -1.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.1 +1.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.4% on Junior W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.9%. The difference — about 8.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Junior W (1X2) 6.06 6.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.06 4.06 0.0
Millonarios W (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.88 1.88 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.87 1.87 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Femenina Dimayor
  • Fixture: Junior W vs Millonarios W
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.4% · Draw 27.6% · Away 49.0%
  • xG (showing): Junior W 1.16 — Millonarios W 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.0% · Implied: 44.1% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +18.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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