Internacional Palmira vs Orsomarso W Statistics & Analysis

Internacional Palmira

Jul 25, 2026 - 21:00

1 1.19

1 1.41

xG Accuracy: 85%

Orsomarso W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Orsomarso W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457006

Closing Odds 2.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Orsomarso W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Internacional Palmira (1X2)	31.9	36.3	-4.5
Draw (1X2)	30.2	32.3	-2.1
Orsomarso W (1X2)	37.9	31.4	+6.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	37.0	+11.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	63.0	-11.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.0%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Internacional Palmira (1X2)	2.49	2.49
Draw (1X2)	2.8	2.8
Orsomarso W (1X2)	2.88	2.88
Over 2.5 goals	2.5	2.5
Under 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Femenina Dimayor
Fixture: Internacional Palmira vs Orsomarso W
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 30.2% · Away 37.9%
xG (showing): Internacional Palmira 1.19 — Orsomarso W 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +11.8 pts · Est. EV: +26.3%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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