Nona vs Inter Gainesville Statistics & Analysis

Nona

Jul 11, 2026 - 23:00

2 1.49

2 1.11

xG Accuracy: 68%

Inter Gainesville

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Nona Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1465006

Closing Odds 1.43

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Nona 2–2 Inter Gainesville

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.94 percentage points on Nona (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nona (1X2)	50.0	62.1	-12.1
Draw (1X2)	26.2	19.2	+7.0
Inter Gainesville (1X2)	23.8	18.7	+5.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	58.6	-10.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	41.4	+10.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 41.4%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Nona (1X2)	1.45	1.43	+0.9
Draw (1X2)	4.55	4.63	-0.3
Inter Gainesville (1X2)	4.6	4.76	-0.6
Over 2.5 goals	1.58	1.56	+0.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.2	2.21	-0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: USL League Two
Fixture: Nona vs Inter Gainesville
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 26.2% · Away 23.8%
xG (showing): Nona 1.49 — Inter Gainesville 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.2% · Probability edge: +10.6 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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