Edgewater Castle vs Chicago Dutch Lions Statistics & Analysis

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Edgewater Castle

Jun 27, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.56

5 1.04

xG Accuracy: 22%

Chicago Dutch Lions

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Edgewater Castle Chicago Dutch Lions ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1599520

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Chicago Dutch Lions win · Edgewater Castle 0–5 Chicago Dutch Lions

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: USL League Two
Fixture: Edgewater Castle vs Chicago Dutch Lions
Kickoff: 2026-06-27 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 47.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 23.7%
xG (showing): Edgewater Castle 1.56 — Chicago Dutch Lions 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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