Lubbock Matadors vs McKinney Chupacabras Statistics & Analysis

Lubbock Matadors

Jun 25, 2026 - 00:00

1 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 85%

McKinney Chupacabras

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lubbock Matadors Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 09:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2596172

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Lubbock Matadors 1–1 McKinney Chupacabras

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL League Two
Fixture: Lubbock Matadors vs McKinney Chupacabras
Kickoff: 2026-06-25 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Lubbock Matadors 1.41 — McKinney Chupacabras 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 45.8% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +17.2%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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