Statistics / Football / USA. USL League Two / Evergreen vs Hill City

Evergreen vs Hill City Statistics & Analysis

Evergreen Evergreen
Jun 24, 2026 - 23:45
3 1.41
4 1.19
xG Accuracy: 30%
⚽
Hill City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Evergreen Hill City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2083696

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hill City win · Evergreen 3–4 Hill City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: USL League Two
  • Fixture: Evergreen vs Hill City
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-24 23:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Evergreen 1.41 — Hill City 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.2% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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