Sporting Jax 2 vs Nona Statistics & Analysis

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Sporting Jax 2

Jun 17, 2026 - 23:00

0 1.24

3 1.36

xG Accuracy: 45%

Nona

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nona Nona ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549536

Closing Odds 1.56

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Nona win · Sporting Jax 2 0–3 Nona

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sporting Jax 2 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sporting Jax 2 (1X2) by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting Jax 2 (1X2)	32.4	19.9	+12.5
Draw (1X2)	29.6	23.1	+6.5
Nona (1X2)	38.0	57.0	-18.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.3	-1.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.7	+1.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Sporting Jax 2 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.9%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sporting Jax 2 (1X2)	4.47	4.47
Draw (1X2)	3.84	3.84
Nona (1X2)	1.56	1.56
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: USL League Two
Fixture: Sporting Jax 2 vs Nona
Kickoff: 2026-06-17 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Sporting Jax 2 1.24 — Nona 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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