Statistics / Football / USA. USL League Two / Evergreen vs Patuxent

Evergreen vs Patuxent Statistics & Analysis

Evergreen Evergreen
Jul 06, 2026 - 00:00
8 1.57
0 1.03
xG Accuracy: 13%
Patuxent Patuxent
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Evergreen Evergreen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 8-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1467360

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Evergreen win · Evergreen 8–0 Patuxent
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: USL League Two
  • Fixture: Evergreen vs Patuxent
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-06 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
  • xG (showing): Evergreen 1.57 — Patuxent 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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