Statistics / Football / Australia. Queensland Premier League / North Star vs Caboolture

North Star vs Caboolture Statistics & Analysis

North Star North Star
Aug 15, 2026 - 06:15
2 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 78%
Caboolture Caboolture
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 North Star North Star ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3335292

Closing Odds 4.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result North Star win · North Star 2–1 Caboolture
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
North Star (1X2) 37.6 39.8 -2.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 21.2 +8.4
Caboolture (1X2) 32.9 39.0 -6.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.2%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
North Star (1X2) 2.3 2.3 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
Caboolture (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Queensland Premier League
  • Fixture: North Star vs Caboolture
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 06:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): North Star 1.35 — Caboolture 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 28.1% · Probability edge: +23.8 pts · Est. EV: +81.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland Premier League Queensland Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 16 4 2 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 10 7 5 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 31
7 Redlands United 22 8 6 8 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 21
11 St George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13
12 Capalaba 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 52 18 +34 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 51 20 +31 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 46 28 +18 37
4 Caboolture 22 45 38 +7 31
5 Redlands United 22 40 38 +2 30
6 Holland Park Hawks 22 40 48 -8 30
7 Logan Lightning 22 39 41 -2 27
8 Robina City 22 36 29 +7 32
9 Ipswich 22 35 30 +5 35
10 North Star 22 22 41 -19 21
11 Capalaba 22 21 57 -36 11
12 St George Willawong 22 13 52 -39 13