Statistics / Football / Australia. Queensland Premier League / Holland Park Hawks vs North Star

Holland Park Hawks vs North Star Statistics & Analysis

Holland Park Hawks Holland Park Hawks
Jul 10, 2026 - 10:30
0 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 49%
North Star North Star
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Holland Park Hawks Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1531898

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Holland Park Hawks 0–0 North Star
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 6.58 percentage points on Holland Park Hawks (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Holland Park Hawks (1X2) by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Holland Park Hawks (1X2) 36.9 30.5 +6.4
Draw (1X2) 27.4 22.3 +5.1
North Star (1X2) 35.7 47.2 -11.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.9% on Holland Park Hawks (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.5%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Holland Park Hawks (1X2) 2.47 3.0 -6.6
Draw (1X2) 4.17 4.11 +0.3
North Star (1X2) 2.24 1.94 +6.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Queensland Premier League
  • Fixture: Holland Park Hawks vs North Star
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-10 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.9% · Draw 27.4% · Away 35.7%
  • xG (showing): Holland Park Hawks 1.33 — North Star 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 28.5% · Probability edge: +23.3 pts · Est. EV: +76.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland Premier League Queensland Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 16 4 2 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 10 7 5 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 31
7 Redlands United 22 8 6 8 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 21
11 St George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13
12 Capalaba 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 52 18 +34 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 51 20 +31 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 46 28 +18 37
4 Caboolture 22 45 38 +7 31
5 Redlands United 22 40 38 +2 30
6 Holland Park Hawks 22 40 48 -8 30
7 Logan Lightning 22 39 41 -2 27
8 Robina City 22 36 29 +7 32
9 Ipswich 22 35 30 +5 35
10 North Star 22 22 41 -19 21
11 Capalaba 22 21 57 -36 11
12 St George Willawong 22 13 52 -39 13