Statistics / Football / Australia. Queensland Premier League / Redlands United vs Caboolture

Redlands United vs Caboolture Statistics & Analysis

Redlands United Redlands United
Aug 01, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 68%
Caboolture Caboolture
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Redlands United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1784492

Closing Odds 3.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Redlands United 2–2 Caboolture
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Redlands United (1X2) 37.6 41.8 -4.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.4 +5.2
Caboolture (1X2) 32.9 33.8 -0.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.3 -18.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.6 +18.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.6%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Redlands United (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.76 3.76 0.0
Caboolture (1X2) 2.71 2.71 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.76 2.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Queensland Premier League
  • Fixture: Redlands United vs Caboolture
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Redlands United 1.35 — Caboolture 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.5% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +47.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Queensland Premier League Queensland Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 16 4 2 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 10 7 5 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 31
7 Redlands United 22 8 6 8 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 21
11 St George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13
12 Capalaba 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 52 18 +34 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 51 20 +31 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 46 28 +18 37
4 Caboolture 22 45 38 +7 31
5 Redlands United 22 40 38 +2 30
6 Holland Park Hawks 22 40 48 -8 30
7 Logan Lightning 22 39 41 -2 27
8 Robina City 22 36 29 +7 32
9 Ipswich 22 35 30 +5 35
10 North Star 22 22 41 -19 21
11 Capalaba 22 21 57 -36 11
12 St George Willawong 22 13 52 -39 13