Broadbeach United vs Caboolture Statistics & Analysis

Broadbeach United

Jul 11, 2026 - 08:00

1 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 85%

Caboolture

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Broadbeach United Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1520615

Closing Odds 1.39

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Broadbeach United 1–1 Caboolture

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Caboolture (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Caboolture (1X2) by about 13.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Broadbeach United (1X2)	41.4	66.0	-24.6
Draw (1X2)	29.4	18.4	+11.0
Caboolture (1X2)	29.3	15.6	+13.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.3% on Caboolture (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.6%. The difference — about 13.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Broadbeach United (1X2)	1.39	1.39
Draw (1X2)	4.99	4.99
Caboolture (1X2)	5.88	5.88

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Queensland Premier League
Fixture: Broadbeach United vs Caboolture
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 08:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Broadbeach United 1.43 — Caboolture 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Brisbane Strikers	22	17	3	2	54
2	Broadbeach United	22	16	4	2	52
3	SC Wanderers	22	10	7	5	37
4	Ipswich	22	10	5	7	35
5	Robina City	22	9	5	8	32
6	Caboolture	22	9	4	9	31
7	Redlands United	22	8	6	8	30
8	Holland Park Hawks	22	9	3	10	30
9	Logan Lightning	22	8	3	11	27
10	North Star	22	6	3	13	21
11	St George Willawong	22	4	1	17	13
12	Capalaba	22	3	2	17	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Brisbane Strikers	22	52	18	+34	54
2	Broadbeach United	22	51	20	+31	52
3	SC Wanderers	22	46	28	+18	37
4	Caboolture	22	45	38	+7	31
5	Redlands United	22	40	38	+2	30
6	Holland Park Hawks	22	40	48	-8	30
7	Logan Lightning	22	39	41	-2	27
8	Robina City	22	36	29	+7	32
9	Ipswich	22	35	30	+5	35
10	North Star	22	22	41	-19	21
11	Capalaba	22	21	57	-36	11
12	St George Willawong	22	13	52	-39	13