Statistics / Football / Australia. Queensland NPL / Magic United vs Rochedale Rovers

Magic United vs Rochedale Rovers Statistics & Analysis

Magic United Magic United
Aug 08, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 80%
Rochedale Rovers Rochedale Rovers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Magic United Magic United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 00:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2807993

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Magic United win · Magic United 2–1 Rochedale Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Magic United (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Magic United (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Magic United (1X2) 40.0 32.0 +8.0
Draw (1X2) 29.5 22.7 +6.8
Rochedale Rovers (1X2) 30.6 45.3 -14.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.0% on Magic United (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.0%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Magic United (1X2) 2.86 2.86 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.04 4.04 0.0
Rochedale Rovers (1X2) 2.02 2.02 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Queensland NPL
  • Fixture: Magic United vs Rochedale Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Magic United 1.4 — Rochedale Rovers 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.0% · Probability edge: +21.8 pts · Est. EV: +68.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland NPL Queensland NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lions 22 17 2 3 53
2 Peninsula Power 22 13 6 3 45
3 Moreton City Excelsior 22 12 3 7 39
4 Gold Coast Knights 22 11 5 6 38
5 Brisbane City 22 9 7 6 34
6 WDSC Wolves 22 9 6 7 33
7 Eastern Suburbs 22 9 2 11 29
8 Olympic 22 8 2 12 26
9 Magic United 22 7 1 14 22
10 Rochedale Rovers 22 6 3 13 21
11 Gold Coast United 22 6 2 14 20
12 Brisbane Roar II 22 5 1 16 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lions 22 57 22 +35 53
2 Moreton City Excelsior 22 51 35 +16 39
3 Peninsula Power 22 49 27 +22 45
4 Brisbane City 22 47 48 -1 34
5 Gold Coast Knights 22 46 32 +14 38
6 Olympic 22 39 43 -4 26
7 WDSC Wolves 22 36 40 -4 33
8 Eastern Suburbs 22 34 35 -1 29
9 Rochedale Rovers 22 34 52 -18 21
10 Magic United 22 33 59 -26 22
11 Brisbane Roar II 22 32 52 -20 16
12 Gold Coast United 22 26 39 -13 20