Statistics / Football / Australia. Queensland NPL / Gold Coast United vs Moreton City Excelsior

Gold Coast United vs Moreton City Excelsior Statistics & Analysis

Gold Coast United Gold Coast United
Jun 28, 2026 - 05:00
0 1.13
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 64%
Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 20:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3141247

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Moreton City Excelsior win · Gold Coast United 0–1 Moreton City Excelsior
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.41 percentage points on Moreton City Excelsior (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 11.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gold Coast United (1X2) 23.2 13.8 +9.4
Draw (1X2) 25.7 14.8 +11.0
Moreton City Excelsior (1X2) 51.1 71.4 -20.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.8%. The difference — about 11.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gold Coast United (1X2) 6.01 6.66 -1.4
Draw (1X2) 5.83 6.24 -1.0
Moreton City Excelsior (1X2) 1.33 1.29 +2.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Queensland NPL
  • Fixture: Gold Coast United vs Moreton City Excelsior
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.2% · Draw 25.7% · Away 51.1%
  • xG (showing): Gold Coast United 1.13 — Moreton City Excelsior 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland NPL Queensland NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lions 22 17 2 3 53
2 Peninsula Power 22 13 6 3 45
3 Moreton City Excelsior 22 12 3 7 39
4 Gold Coast Knights 22 11 5 6 38
5 Brisbane City 22 9 7 6 34
6 WDSC Wolves 22 9 6 7 33
7 Eastern Suburbs 22 9 2 11 29
8 Olympic 22 8 2 12 26
9 Magic United 22 7 1 14 22
10 Rochedale Rovers 22 6 3 13 21
11 Gold Coast United 22 6 2 14 20
12 Brisbane Roar II 22 5 1 16 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lions 22 57 22 +35 53
2 Moreton City Excelsior 22 51 35 +16 39
3 Peninsula Power 22 49 27 +22 45
4 Brisbane City 22 47 48 -1 34
5 Gold Coast Knights 22 46 32 +14 38
6 Olympic 22 39 43 -4 26
7 WDSC Wolves 22 36 40 -4 33
8 Eastern Suburbs 22 34 35 -1 29
9 Rochedale Rovers 22 34 52 -18 21
10 Magic United 22 33 59 -26 22
11 Brisbane Roar II 22 32 52 -20 16
12 Gold Coast United 22 26 39 -13 20