Statistics / Football / Australia. Northern NSW NPL / Cooks Hill United vs Valentine

Cooks Hill United vs Valentine Statistics & Analysis

Cooks Hill United Cooks Hill United
Jul 03, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 60%
Valentine Valentine
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cooks Hill United Cooks Hill United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2341437

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Cooks Hill United win · Cooks Hill United 3–1 Valentine
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.39 percentage points on Valentine (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cooks Hill United (1X2) 39.8 39.0 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 27.8 22.9 +4.9
Valentine (1X2) 32.4 38.1 -5.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.5 -17.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.5 +17.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.5%. The difference — about 17.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cooks Hill United (1X2) 2.07 2.35 -3.8
Draw (1X2) 3.76 4.0 -0.6
Valentine (1X2) 2.62 2.4 +4.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.41 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 2.62 2.68 -0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Northern NSW NPL
  • Fixture: Cooks Hill United vs Valentine
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-03 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.8% · Draw 27.8% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Cooks Hill United 1.37 — Valentine 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Northern NSW NPL Northern NSW NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 15 4 3 49
2 Maitland 22 13 3 6 42
3 Weston Bears 22 12 5 5 41
4 Edgeworth Eagles 22 11 6 5 39
5 Belmont Swansea 22 10 5 7 35
6 Cooks Hill United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Valentine 22 7 5 10 26
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 7 4 11 25
9 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 6 6 10 24
10 Hamilton Olympic 22 5 6 11 21
11 Kahibah 22 6 2 14 20
12 Charlestown City Blues 22 4 2 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 59 23 +36 49
2 Weston Bears 22 48 33 +15 41
3 Belmont Swansea 22 47 44 +3 35
4 Cooks Hill United 22 43 36 +7 33
5 Edgeworth Eagles 22 41 31 +10 39
6 Maitland 22 40 32 +8 42
7 Hamilton Olympic 22 39 40 -1 21
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 38 33 +5 25
9 Kahibah 22 35 53 -18 20
10 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 34 45 -11 24
11 Charlestown City Blues 22 25 62 -37 14
12 Valentine 22 22 39 -17 26