Statistics / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole

Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole Statistics & Analysis

Džiugas Telšiai Džiugas Telšiai
Jun 21, 2026 - 11:15
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Suduva Marijampole Suduva Marijampole ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2113692

Closing Odds 2.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Suduva Marijampole win · Džiugas Telšiai 1–2 Suduva Marijampole
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.58 percentage points on Suduva Marijampole (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 2.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Džiugas Telšiai (1X2) 32.6 30.6 +2.0
Draw (1X2) 29.2 27.8 +1.4
Suduva Marijampole (1X2) 38.2 41.6 -3.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 45.9 +2.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 54.1 -2.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.9%. The difference — about 2.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Džiugas Telšiai (1X2) 3.13 3.03 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 3.41 3.33 +0.6
Suduva Marijampole (1X2) 2.15 2.23 -1.6
Over 2.5 goals 2.04 2.05 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 1.75 1.74 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 11:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.6% · Draw 29.2% · Away 38.2%
  • xG (showing): Džiugas Telšiai 1.28 — Suduva Marijampole 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 51.0% · Probability edge: +3.5 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0