Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro Women / Fluminense W vs America Mineiro W

Fluminense W vs America Mineiro W Statistics & Analysis

Fluminense W Fluminense W
Aug 15, 2026 - 18:00
4 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
America Mineiro W America Mineiro W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fluminense W Fluminense W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3365227

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fluminense W win · Fluminense W 4–1 America Mineiro W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.64 percentage points on Fluminense W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE5.

The model still exceeds closing implied on America Mineiro W (1X2) by about 24.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fluminense W (1X2) 36.1 71.9 -35.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 18.8 +10.9
America Mineiro W (1X2) 34.2 9.3 +24.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.6 -6.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.4 +6.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on America Mineiro W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.3%. The difference — about 24.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Fluminense W (1X2) 1.29 1.29 +0.6
Draw (1X2) 4.82 4.94 -0.3
America Mineiro W (1X2) 9.53 9.97 -0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.74 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.07 2.09 +0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Fluminense W; market prices Fluminense W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Fluminense W 1.32 xG vs America Mineiro W 1.28 → Fluminense W 36.1%
  • Market: Fluminense W ~71.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasileiro Women Brasileiro Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 São Paulo W 17 13 2 2 41
2 Corinthians W 17 12 2 3 38
3 Palmeiras W 17 10 6 1 36
4 Ferroviaria W 17 8 7 2 31
5 Flamengo W 17 8 6 3 30
6 Bahia W 17 8 5 4 29
7 Cruzeiro W 17 7 7 3 28
8 Gremio W 17 8 3 6 27
9 Internacional RS W 17 8 3 6 27
10 RB Bragantino W 17 8 2 7 26
11 Fluminense W 17 7 5 5 26
12 Santos W 17 6 5 6 23
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 4 4 9 16
14 Mixto W 17 2 6 9 12
15 Juventude W 17 2 5 10 11
16 America Mineiro W 17 1 4 12 7
17 Vitória BA W 17 1 4 12 7
18 Botafogo W 17 1 2 14 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Corinthians W 17 42 18 +24 38
2 Palmeiras W 17 32 11 +21 36
3 São Paulo W 17 31 11 +20 41
4 Cruzeiro W 17 30 19 +11 28
5 Bahia W 17 30 21 +9 29
6 RB Bragantino W 17 30 26 +4 26
7 Flamengo W 17 29 20 +9 30
8 Ferroviaria W 17 23 14 +9 31
9 Gremio W 17 23 16 +7 27
10 Fluminense W 17 23 19 +4 26
11 Santos W 17 22 23 -1 23
12 Internacional RS W 17 21 17 +4 27
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 17 25 -8 16
14 Vitória BA W 17 15 45 -30 7
15 Mixto W 17 10 27 -17 12
16 Botafogo W 17 10 38 -28 5
17 Juventude W 17 9 22 -13 11
18 America Mineiro W 17 9 34 -25 7
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