Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro Women / Fluminense W vs RB Bragantino W

Fluminense W vs RB Bragantino W Statistics & Analysis

Fluminense W Fluminense W
Aug 01, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
RB Bragantino W RB Bragantino W
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fluminense W Fluminense W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1823055

Closing Odds 2.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fluminense W win · Fluminense W 2–1 RB Bragantino W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fluminense W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fluminense W (1X2) 36.6 35.2 +1.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.6 -1.9
RB Bragantino W (1X2) 33.8 33.3 +0.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.9 +5.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 57.1 -5.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.9%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fluminense W (1X2) 2.64 2.64 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.94 2.94 0.0
RB Bragantino W (1X2) 2.79 2.79 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Brasileiro Women
  • Fixture: Fluminense W vs RB Bragantino W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Fluminense W 1.33 — RB Bragantino W 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Fluminense W & RB Bragantino W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Brasileiro Women Brasileiro Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 São Paulo W 17 13 2 2 41
2 Corinthians W 17 12 2 3 38
3 Palmeiras W 17 10 6 1 36
4 Ferroviaria W 17 8 7 2 31
5 Flamengo W 17 8 6 3 30
6 Bahia W 17 8 5 4 29
7 Cruzeiro W 17 7 7 3 28
8 Gremio W 17 8 3 6 27
9 Internacional RS W 17 8 3 6 27
10 RB Bragantino W 17 8 2 7 26
11 Fluminense W 17 7 5 5 26
12 Santos W 17 6 5 6 23
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 4 4 9 16
14 Mixto W 17 2 6 9 12
15 Juventude W 17 2 5 10 11
16 America Mineiro W 17 1 4 12 7
17 Vitória BA W 17 1 4 12 7
18 Botafogo W 17 1 2 14 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Corinthians W 17 42 18 +24 38
2 Palmeiras W 17 32 11 +21 36
3 São Paulo W 17 31 11 +20 41
4 Cruzeiro W 17 30 19 +11 28
5 Bahia W 17 30 21 +9 29
6 RB Bragantino W 17 30 26 +4 26
7 Flamengo W 17 29 20 +9 30
8 Ferroviaria W 17 23 14 +9 31
9 Gremio W 17 23 16 +7 27
10 Fluminense W 17 23 19 +4 26
11 Santos W 17 22 23 -1 23
12 Internacional RS W 17 21 17 +4 27
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 17 25 -8 16
14 Vitória BA W 17 15 45 -30 7
15 Mixto W 17 10 27 -17 12
16 Botafogo W 17 10 38 -28 5
17 Juventude W 17 9 22 -13 11
18 America Mineiro W 17 9 34 -25 7
Brasileiro Women Brazil. Brasileiro Women Predictions