Statistics / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro Women / Internacional RS W vs Fluminense W

Internacional RS W vs Fluminense W Statistics & Analysis

Internacional RS W Internacional RS W
Jul 24, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Fluminense W Fluminense W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Internacional RS W Internacional RS W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450595

Closing Odds 4.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Internacional RS W win · Internacional RS W 1–0 Fluminense W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fluminense W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fluminense W (1X2) by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Internacional RS W (1X2) 36.0 46.5 -10.5
Draw (1X2) 29.8 31.0 -1.3
Fluminense W (1X2) 34.2 22.5 +11.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 40.6 +7.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 59.4 -7.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Fluminense W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.5%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Internacional RS W (1X2) 1.97 1.97 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Fluminense W (1X2) 4.07 4.07 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.31 2.31 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.58 1.58 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Brasileiro Women
  • Fixture: Internacional RS W vs Fluminense W
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.0% · Draw 29.8% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Internacional RS W 1.27 — Fluminense W 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +7.7 pts · Est. EV: +11.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasileiro Women Brasileiro Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 São Paulo W 17 13 2 2 41
2 Corinthians W 17 12 2 3 38
3 Palmeiras W 17 10 6 1 36
4 Ferroviaria W 17 8 7 2 31
5 Flamengo W 17 8 6 3 30
6 Bahia W 17 8 5 4 29
7 Cruzeiro W 17 7 7 3 28
8 Gremio W 17 8 3 6 27
9 Internacional RS W 17 8 3 6 27
10 RB Bragantino W 17 8 2 7 26
11 Fluminense W 17 7 5 5 26
12 Santos W 17 6 5 6 23
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 4 4 9 16
14 Mixto W 17 2 6 9 12
15 Juventude W 17 2 5 10 11
16 America Mineiro W 17 1 4 12 7
17 Vitória BA W 17 1 4 12 7
18 Botafogo W 17 1 2 14 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Corinthians W 17 42 18 +24 38
2 Palmeiras W 17 32 11 +21 36
3 São Paulo W 17 31 11 +20 41
4 Cruzeiro W 17 30 19 +11 28
5 Bahia W 17 30 21 +9 29
6 RB Bragantino W 17 30 26 +4 26
7 Flamengo W 17 29 20 +9 30
8 Ferroviaria W 17 23 14 +9 31
9 Gremio W 17 23 16 +7 27
10 Fluminense W 17 23 19 +4 26
11 Santos W 17 22 23 -1 23
12 Internacional RS W 17 21 17 +4 27
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 17 25 -8 16
14 Vitória BA W 17 15 45 -30 7
15 Mixto W 17 10 27 -17 12
16 Botafogo W 17 10 38 -28 5
17 Juventude W 17 9 22 -13 11
18 America Mineiro W 17 9 34 -25 7
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