Statistics / Football / Australia. Victoria NPL 2 / Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks FC

Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks FC Statistics & Analysis

Langwarrin Langwarrin
Jul 04, 2026 - 05:00
1 1.27
6 1.33
xG Accuracy: 26%
⚽
Eltham Redbacks FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eltham Redbacks FC Eltham Redbacks FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 07:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1561079

Closing Odds 3.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Eltham Redbacks FC win · Langwarrin 1–6 Eltham Redbacks FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Langwarrin (1X2) 33.9 34.5 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 27.7 23.0 +4.7
Eltham Redbacks FC (1X2) 38.4 42.5 -4.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.0%. The difference — about 4.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Langwarrin (1X2) 2.62 2.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.93 3.93 0.0
Eltham Redbacks FC (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Victoria NPL 2
  • Fixture: Langwarrin vs Eltham Redbacks FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.9% · Draw 27.7% · Away 38.4%
  • xG (showing): Langwarrin 1.27 — Eltham Redbacks FC 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 29.9% · Probability edge: +21.9 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Victoria NPL 2 Victoria NPL 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brunswick Juventus FC 26 17 2 7 53
2 Melbourne Knights 26 16 4 6 52
3 Northcote City 26 15 4 7 49
4 Bulleen Lions 26 14 6 6 48
5 Melbourne Victory II 26 14 4 8 46
6 Eltham Redbacks FC 26 11 6 9 39
7 Melbourne Srbija 26 12 3 11 39
8 Brunswick City 26 10 3 13 33
9 North Geelong Warriors 26 10 2 14 32
10 Langwarrin 26 8 6 12 30
11 Manningham United Blues 26 9 3 14 30
12 North Sunshine Eagles 26 7 5 14 26
13 Western United II 26 8 1 17 25
14 Port Melbourne 26 4 5 17 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Melbourne Victory II 26 59 36 +23 46
2 Eltham Redbacks FC 26 58 41 +17 39
3 Brunswick Juventus FC 26 50 32 +18 53
4 Bulleen Lions 26 50 32 +18 48
5 Melbourne Knights 26 49 24 +25 52
6 Brunswick City 26 49 51 -2 33
7 Langwarrin 26 46 54 -8 30
8 Western United II 26 46 72 -26 25
9 Northcote City 26 44 29 +15 49
10 Manningham United Blues 26 38 58 -20 30
11 North Geelong Warriors 26 37 52 -15 32
12 North Sunshine Eagles 26 35 40 -5 26
13 Melbourne Srbija 26 30 26 +4 39
14 Port Melbourne 26 14 58 -44 17