Statistics / Football / Australia. Victoria NPL 2 / Melbourne Srbija vs Bulleen Lions

Melbourne Srbija vs Bulleen Lions Statistics & Analysis

Melbourne Srbija Melbourne Srbija
Aug 22, 2026 - 08:15
0 1.47
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bulleen Lions Bulleen Lions
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Melbourne Srbija Bulleen Lions ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4210913

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bulleen Lions win · Melbourne Srbija 0–1 Bulleen Lions
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Melbourne Srbija (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Melbourne Srbija (1X2) 43.3 37.8 +5.5
Draw (1X2) 29.2 26.0 +3.2
Bulleen Lions (1X2) 27.5 36.2 -8.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.6 -8.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.4 +8.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.4%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Melbourne Srbija (1X2) 2.39 2.39 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.48 3.48 0.0
Bulleen Lions (1X2) 2.5 2.5 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.65 1.65 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.15 2.15 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Victoria NPL 2
  • Fixture: Melbourne Srbija vs Bulleen Lions
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Melbourne Srbija 1.47 — Bulleen Lions 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.2% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +20.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Victoria NPL 2 Victoria NPL 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brunswick Juventus FC 26 17 2 7 53
2 Melbourne Knights 26 16 4 6 52
3 Northcote City 26 15 4 7 49
4 Bulleen Lions 26 14 6 6 48
5 Melbourne Victory II 26 14 4 8 46
6 Eltham Redbacks FC 26 11 6 9 39
7 Melbourne Srbija 26 12 3 11 39
8 Brunswick City 26 10 3 13 33
9 North Geelong Warriors 26 10 2 14 32
10 Langwarrin 26 8 6 12 30
11 Manningham United Blues 26 9 3 14 30
12 North Sunshine Eagles 26 7 5 14 26
13 Western United II 26 8 1 17 25
14 Port Melbourne 26 4 5 17 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Melbourne Victory II 26 59 36 +23 46
2 Eltham Redbacks FC 26 58 41 +17 39
3 Brunswick Juventus FC 26 50 32 +18 53
4 Bulleen Lions 26 50 32 +18 48
5 Melbourne Knights 26 49 24 +25 52
6 Brunswick City 26 49 51 -2 33
7 Langwarrin 26 46 54 -8 30
8 Western United II 26 46 72 -26 25
9 Northcote City 26 44 29 +15 49
10 Manningham United Blues 26 38 58 -20 30
11 North Geelong Warriors 26 37 52 -15 32
12 North Sunshine Eagles 26 35 40 -5 26
13 Melbourne Srbija 26 30 26 +4 39
14 Port Melbourne 26 14 58 -44 17