Statistics / Football / Australia. Victoria NPL / South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder

South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder Statistics & Analysis

South Melbourne South Melbourne
Jul 05, 2026 - 05:30
1 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 64%
Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 South Melbourne South Melbourne ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1513974

Closing Odds 1.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result South Melbourne win · South Melbourne 1–0 Dandenong Thunder
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dandenong Thunder (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dandenong Thunder (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
South Melbourne (1X2) 45.7 79.3 -33.6
Draw (1X2) 25.6 11.7 +14.0
Dandenong Thunder (1X2) 28.7 9.1 +19.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.7% on Dandenong Thunder (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.1%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
South Melbourne (1X2) 1.13 1.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.69 7.69 0.0
Dandenong Thunder (1X2) 9.87 9.87 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours South Melbourne; market prices South Melbourne instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: South Melbourne 1.19 xG vs Dandenong Thunder 1.41 → South Melbourne 45.8%
  • Market: South Melbourne ~79.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Victoria NPL Victoria NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Oakleigh Cannons 26 16 6 4 54
2 Preston Lions 26 15 6 5 51
3 Hume City 26 15 4 7 49
4 Avondale 26 15 2 9 47
5 South Melbourne 26 13 2 11 41
6 Heidelberg United 26 11 7 8 40
7 Sunshine Georgies 26 9 11 6 38
8 Dandenong City 26 10 7 9 37
9 St. Albans Saints 26 9 7 10 34
10 Melbourne City II 26 8 6 12 30
11 Altona Magic 26 7 7 12 28
12 Bentleigh Greens 26 6 6 14 24
13 Green Gully 26 4 6 16 18
14 Dandenong Thunder 26 4 3 19 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avondale 26 65 34 +31 47
2 Oakleigh Cannons 26 56 24 +32 54
3 Hume City 26 51 36 +15 49
4 Heidelberg United 26 42 34 +8 40
5 Melbourne City II 26 42 42 0 30
6 Preston Lions 26 41 19 +22 51
7 South Melbourne 26 39 36 +3 41
8 St. Albans Saints 26 36 43 -7 34
9 Dandenong City 26 35 31 +4 37
10 Sunshine Georgies 26 35 34 +1 38
11 Altona Magic 26 28 42 -14 28
12 Bentleigh Greens 26 27 51 -24 24
13 Green Gully 26 23 52 -29 18
14 Dandenong Thunder 26 23 65 -42 15