Statistics / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Statistics & Analysis

Tallinna Kalev II Tallinna Kalev II
Oct 11, 2026 - 09:30
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tallinna Kalev II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13189844

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tallinna Kalev II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Tallinna Kalev II vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Tallinna Kalev II 1.35 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 16.2% · Probability edge: +35.6 pts · Est. EV: +236.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 31 19 2 10 59
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 31 14 5 12 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 31 8 5 18 29
10 Legion 31 3 4 24 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 31 81 64 +17 47
3 Levadia U19 31 78 52 +26 59
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 31 63 78 -15 29
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 31 29 116 -87 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions