Levadia U19 vs Tulevik Statistics & Analysis

Levadia U19

Sep 15, 2026 - 15:30

3 1.33

5 1.27

xG Accuracy: 23%

Tulevik

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Levadia U19 Tulevik ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7702355

Closing Odds 2.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tulevik win · Levadia U19 3–5 Tulevik

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Levadia U19 (1X2)	36.6	41.2	-4.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.3	+4.4
Tulevik (1X2)	33.8	33.5	+0.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.3%. The difference — about 4.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Levadia U19 (1X2)	2.1	2.1
Draw (1X2)	3.42	3.42
Tulevik (1X2)	2.58	2.58

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Esiliiga B
Fixture: Levadia U19 vs Tulevik
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Levadia U19 1.33 — Tulevik 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 21.8% · Probability edge: +30.0 pts · Est. EV: +148.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 18, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Narva U21	28	18	3	7	57
2	Levadia U19	29	17	2	10	53
3	Phoenix	29	16	3	10	51
4	Johvi Phoenix	19	11	1	7	34
4	Tartu Kalev	29	15	2	12	47
5	Luunja	29	14	5	10	47
6	Tulevik	29	13	5	11	44
7	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	29	13	4	12	43
8	JK Tabasalu	29	10	3	16	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	29	7	5	17	26
10	Legion	28	3	4	21	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	29	83	62	+21	43
2	Levadia U19	29	74	52	+22	53
3	Tulevik	29	74	60	+14	44
4	Luunja	29	74	62	+12	47
5	Tartu Kalev	29	71	52	+19	47
6	Phoenix	29	68	66	+2	51
7	Narva U21	28	67	34	+33	57
8	Tallinna Kalev II	29	59	75	-16	26
9	Johvi Phoenix	19	49	47	+2	34
10	JK Tabasalu	29	42	78	-36	33
11	Legion	28	28	99	-71	13