Statistics / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Narva U21 vs Luunja

Narva U21 vs Luunja Statistics & Analysis

Narva U21 Narva U21
Sep 15, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
Luunja Luunja
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Luunja Narva U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7702059

Closing Odds 1.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Narva U21 win · Narva U21 1–0 Luunja
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.99 percentage points on Narva U21 (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Luunja (1X2) by about 22.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Narva U21 (1X2) 34.7 74.2 -39.4
Draw (1X2) 29.7 12.9 +16.8
Luunja (1X2) 35.6 12.9 +22.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Luunja (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.9%. The difference — about 22.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Narva U21 (1X2) 1.18 1.19 -1.0
Draw (1X2) 7.01 6.84 +0.2
Luunja (1X2) 7.28 6.83 +0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Luunja; market prices Narva U21 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Narva U21 1.29 xG vs Luunja 1.31 → Luunja 35.6%
  • Market: Narva U21 ~12.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 29 19 3 7 60
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
4 Tartu Kalev 29 15 2 12 47
5 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
7 Tulevik 29 13 5 11 44
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
3 Tulevik 29 74 60 +14 44
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 29 71 52 +19 47
6 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
7 Narva U21 29 69 35 +34 60
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 29 28 111 -83 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions