JK Tabasalu vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Statistics & Analysis

JK Tabasalu

Jul 05, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.30

8 1.30

xG Accuracy: 13%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (10 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1532464

Closing Odds 2.02

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win · JK Tabasalu 2–8 Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 6.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
JK Tabasalu (1X2)	35.6	35.4	+0.1
Draw (1X2)	27.0	20.5	+6.5
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (1X2)	37.4	44.0	-6.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.0% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.5%. The difference — about 6.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
JK Tabasalu (1X2)	2.51	2.51
Draw (1X2)	4.33	4.33
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 (1X2)	2.02	2.02

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Esiliiga B
Fixture: JK Tabasalu vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Kickoff: 2026-07-05 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 27.0% · Away 37.4%
xG (showing): JK Tabasalu 1.3 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 22.2% · Probability edge: +29.6 pts · Est. EV: +133.1%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	20	3	7	63
2	Levadia U19	30	18	2	10	56
3	Phoenix	30	17	3	10	54
4	Tulevik	30	14	5	11	47
4	Johvi Phoenix	19	11	1	7	34
5	Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	47
6	Luunja	30	14	5	11	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	14	4	12	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	10	3	17	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	30	7	5	18	26
10	Legion	30	3	4	23	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	95	62	+33	46
2	Tulevik	30	80	61	+19	47
3	Levadia U19	30	75	52	+23	56
4	Luunja	30	74	63	+11	47
5	Tartu Kalev	30	72	58	+14	47
6	Narva U21	30	71	36	+35	63
7	Phoenix	30	71	68	+3	54
8	Tallinna Kalev II	30	60	77	-17	26
9	Johvi Phoenix	19	49	47	+2	34
10	JK Tabasalu	30	44	81	-37	33
11	Legion	30	29	113	-84	13