Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta Statistics & Analysis

Novorizontino Novorizontino
Oct 12, 2026 - 22:00
5 2.05
1 0.83
xG Accuracy: 42%
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Novorizontino Novorizontino ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13674300

Closing Odds 1.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Novorizontino win · Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE5 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ponte Preta (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 13.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Novorizontino (1X2) 64.5 87.2 -22.7
Draw (1X2) 22.6 9.2 +13.3
Ponte Preta (1X2) 12.9 3.6 +9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 22.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.2%. The difference — about 13.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE5 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE5) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Novorizontino (1X2) 1.06 1.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 10.0 10.0 0.0
Ponte Preta (1X2) 26.0 26.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 64.5% · Draw 22.6% · Away 13.0%
  • xG (showing): Novorizontino 2.05 — Ponte Preta 0.83 (total xG ≈ 2.88)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.1% · Over 2.5 54.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.4% · No 49.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (11.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 33 18 7 8 61
2 Novorizontino 33 17 9 7 60
3 Juventude 33 17 9 7 60
4 Fortaleza EC 33 15 12 6 57
5 Criciuma 33 16 8 9 56
6 Atletico Goianiense 33 14 11 8 53
7 CRB 33 15 7 11 52
8 Sport Recife 33 13 12 8 51
9 Goias 33 14 6 13 48
10 Operario-PR 33 13 9 11 48
11 Cuiaba 33 11 14 8 47
12 São Bernardo 33 12 10 11 46
13 Nautico Recife 33 11 9 13 42
14 Ceara 32 11 9 12 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avai 33 10 6 17 36
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 America Mineiro 33 4 5 24 17
20 Ponte Preta 33 3 4 26 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 33 59 28 +31 60
2 CRB 33 51 47 +4 52
3 Vila Nova 33 46 31 +15 61
4 São Bernardo 33 46 36 +10 46
5 Sport Recife 33 45 35 +10 51
6 Operario-PR 33 44 45 -1 48
7 Atletico Goianiense 33 41 31 +10 53
8 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
9 Juventude 33 39 21 +18 60
10 Fortaleza EC 33 39 29 +10 57
11 Nautico Recife 33 39 42 -3 42
12 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
13 Botafogo SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceara 32 35 39 -4 42
15 Criciuma 33 34 28 +6 56
16 Goias 33 34 40 -6 48
17 Avai 33 33 43 -10 36
18 Cuiaba 33 32 26 +6 47
19 America Mineiro 33 21 54 -33 17
20 Ponte Preta 33 18 73 -55 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 33 19.0 10.4 +8.6 60
2 Cuiaba 33 14.1 7.2 +6.9 47
3 Fortaleza EC 33 16.8 10.1 +6.7 57
4 Atletico Goianiense 33 16.8 12.9 +3.9 53
5 Juventude 33 12.8 9.3 +3.5 60
6 Vila Nova 33 13.9 10.7 +3.2 61
7 Criciuma 33 11.5 8.3 +3.2 56
8 CRB 33 18.6 15.8 +2.8 52
9 Avai 33 12.0 10.4 +1.6 36
10 Sport Recife 33 15.5 14.2 +1.3 51
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 Botafogo SP 32 14.6 14.3 +0.3 38
13 Nautico Recife 33 15.9 16.6 -0.7 42
14 São Bernardo 33 13.9 15.2 -1.3 46
15 Goias 33 12.8 14.8 -2.0 48
16 Operario-PR 33 14.5 17.2 -2.7 48
17 Ceara 32 9.6 15.1 -5.5 42
18 America Mineiro 33 11.9 18.4 -6.5 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 33 9.9 26.5 -16.6 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions