Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova Statistics & Analysis

Nautico Recife

Oct 11, 2026 - 20:30

0 0.98

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 63%

Vila Nova

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238775

Closing Odds 2.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Vila Nova win · Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vila Nova (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vila Nova (1X2) by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nautico Recife (1X2)	26.7	33.7	-7.0
Draw (1X2)	31.6	29.9	+1.7
Vila Nova (1X2)	41.6	36.4	+5.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.6% on Vila Nova (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 36.4%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Nautico Recife (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Draw (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Vila Nova (1X2)	2.55	2.55

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 20:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 31.6% · Away 41.6%
xG (showing): Nautico Recife 0.98 — Vila Nova 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.26)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
Model: 53.2% · Implied: 48.9% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 46.8% · No 53.2%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	61
2	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	60
3	Juventude	33	17	9	7	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	15	12	6	57
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	14	11	8	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	48
10	Operario-PR	33	13	9	11	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	47
12	São Bernardo	33	12	10	11	46
13	Nautico Recife	33	11	9	13	42
14	Ceara	33	11	9	13	42
15	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	36
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	28
19	America Mineiro	33	4	5	24	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	26	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	33	59	28	+31	60
2	CRB	33	51	47	+4	52
3	Vila Nova	33	46	31	+15	61
4	São Bernardo	33	46	36	+10	46
5	Sport Recife	33	45	35	+10	51
6	Operario-PR	33	44	45	-1	48
7	Atletico Goianiense	33	41	31	+10	53
8	Londrina	32	40	47	-7	28
9	Juventude	33	39	21	+18	60
10	Fortaleza EC	33	39	29	+10	57
11	Nautico Recife	33	39	42	-3	42
12	Athletic Club	32	38	37	+1	42
13	Botafogo SP	33	37	38	-1	41
14	Ceara	33	35	40	-5	42
15	Criciuma	33	34	28	+6	56
16	Goias	33	34	40	-6	48
17	Avai	33	33	43	-10	36
18	Cuiaba	33	32	26	+6	47
19	America Mineiro	33	21	54	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	18	73	-55	13

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	33	19.0	10.4	+8.6	60
2	Cuiaba	33	14.1	7.2	+6.9	47
3	Fortaleza EC	33	16.8	10.1	+6.7	57
4	Atletico Goianiense	33	16.8	12.9	+3.9	53
5	Juventude	33	12.8	9.3	+3.5	60
6	Vila Nova	33	13.9	10.7	+3.2	61
7	Criciuma	33	11.5	8.3	+3.2	56
8	CRB	33	18.6	15.8	+2.8	52
9	Londrina	32	12.6	11.0	+1.6	28
10	Avai	33	12.0	10.4	+1.6	36
11	Sport Recife	33	15.5	14.2	+1.3	51
12	Botafogo SP	33	14.6	14.3	+0.3	41
13	Nautico Recife	33	15.9	16.6	-0.7	42
14	São Bernardo	33	13.9	15.2	-1.3	46
15	Goias	33	12.8	14.8	-2.0	48
16	Operario-PR	33	14.5	17.2	-2.7	48
17	Ceara	33	9.6	15.1	-5.5	42
18	America Mineiro	33	11.9	18.4	-6.5	17
19	Athletic Club	32	13.3	21.4	-8.1	42
20	Ponte Preta	33	9.9	26.5	-16.6	13