Sport Recife vs São Bernardo Statistics & Analysis

Sport Recife

Oct 06, 2026 - 22:30

2 1.11

1 0.99

xG Accuracy: 78%

São Bernardo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sport Recife Sport Recife ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11918694

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Sport Recife win · Sport Recife 2–1 São Bernardo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.67 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on São Bernardo (1X2) by about 11.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sport Recife (1X2)	36.4	55.6	-19.2
Draw (1X2)	33.4	25.6	+7.7
São Bernardo (1X2)	30.2	18.8	+11.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.2% on São Bernardo (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.8%. The difference — about 11.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Sport Recife (1X2)	1.66	1.66	-0.1
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.6	+0.7
São Bernardo (1X2)	4.75	4.9	-0.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
Kickoff: 2026-10-06 22:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.4% · Draw 33.4% · Away 30.2%
xG (showing): Sport Recife 1.11 — São Bernardo 0.99 (total xG ≈ 2.1)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 65.0% · Over 2.5 35.0%); BTTS No (Yes 43.9% · No 56.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 43.9% · No 56.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	59
2	Vila Nova	32	17	7	8	58
3	Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	57
4	Fortaleza EC	32	15	11	6	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	53
6	Atletico Goianiense	32	14	10	8	52
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	51
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	50
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	48
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	47
11	Goias	32	13	6	13	45
12	São Bernardo	32	12	9	11	45
13	Nautico Recife	32	11	9	12	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	42
15	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	38
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	33
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	28
19	America Mineiro	32	4	5	23	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	32	54	27	+27	57
2	CRB	32	49	45	+4	51
3	Vila Nova	32	44	31	+13	58
4	Sport Recife	32	44	34	+10	50
5	São Bernardo	32	44	34	+10	45
6	Operario-PR	32	44	43	+1	48
7	Atletico Goianiense	32	40	30	+10	52
8	Londrina	32	40	47	-7	28
9	Nautico Recife	32	39	40	-1	42
10	Athletic Club	32	38	37	+1	42
11	Juventude	32	37	19	+18	59
12	Fortaleza EC	32	37	27	+10	56
13	Botafogo SP	32	36	38	-2	38
14	Ceara	32	35	39	-4	42
15	Criciuma	32	33	28	+5	53
16	Cuiaba	32	32	25	+7	47
17	Goias	32	32	40	-8	45
18	Avai	32	32	43	-11	33
19	America Mineiro	32	21	53	-32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	17	68	-51	13

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	32	17.2	9.2	+8.0	57
2	Fortaleza EC	32	16.8	10.1	+6.7	56
3	Cuiaba	32	12.3	7.0	+5.3	47
4	Atletico Goianiense	32	15.2	11.1	+4.1	52
5	Avai	32	11.9	8.5	+3.4	33
6	Vila Nova	32	13.3	10.1	+3.2	58
7	CRB	32	18.6	15.8	+2.8	51
8	Juventude	32	10.2	8.0	+2.2	59
9	Criciuma	32	10.0	8.1	+1.9	53
10	Sport Recife	32	13.7	12.6	+1.1	50
11	Londrina	32	10.4	9.6	+0.8	28
12	São Bernardo	32	12.6	12.6	0.0	45
13	Botafogo SP	32	13.7	13.8	-0.1	38
14	Nautico Recife	32	15.3	16.1	-0.8	42
15	Goias	32	11.8	13.1	-1.3	45
16	Operario-PR	32	12.8	16.2	-3.4	48
17	Ceara	32	9.1	14.2	-5.1	42
18	America Mineiro	32	11.7	16.9	-5.2	17
19	Athletic Club	32	11.9	19.2	-7.3	42
20	Ponte Preta	32	8.7	24.8	-16.1	13