Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP

Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP Statistics & Analysis

Operario-PR Operario-PR
Oct 07, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.06
2 1.10
xG Accuracy: 77%
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12191054

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Botafogo SP win · Operario-PR 1–2 Botafogo SP
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Botafogo SP (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Botafogo SP (1X2) by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Operario-PR (1X2) 32.5 42.3 -9.8
Draw (1X2) 32.9 28.6 +4.3
Botafogo SP (1X2) 34.6 29.1 +5.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.6% on Botafogo SP (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.1%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Operario-PR (1X2) 2.2 2.2 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0
Botafogo SP (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-07 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.5% · Draw 32.9% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Operario-PR 1.06 — Botafogo SP 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.16)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 63.3% · Implied: 56.3% · Probability edge: +7.0 pts · Est. EV: +7.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 59
2 Vila Nova 32 17 7 8 58
3 Novorizontino 32 16 9 7 57
4 Fortaleza EC 32 15 11 6 56
5 Criciuma 32 15 8 9 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 32 14 10 8 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 45
12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 45
13 Nautico Recife 32 11 9 12 42
14 Ceara 32 11 9 12 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 America Mineiro 32 4 5 23 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 32 54 27 +27 57
2 CRB 32 49 45 +4 51
3 Vila Nova 32 44 31 +13 58
4 Sport Recife 32 44 34 +10 50
5 São Bernardo 32 44 34 +10 45
6 Operario-PR 32 44 43 +1 48
7 Atletico Goianiense 32 40 30 +10 52
8 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
9 Nautico Recife 32 39 40 -1 42
10 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
11 Juventude 32 37 19 +18 59
12 Fortaleza EC 32 37 27 +10 56
13 Botafogo SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceara 32 35 39 -4 42
15 Criciuma 32 33 28 +5 53
16 Cuiaba 32 32 25 +7 47
17 Goias 32 32 40 -8 45
18 Avai 32 32 43 -11 33
19 America Mineiro 32 21 53 -32 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 17 68 -51 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 32 17.2 9.2 +8.0 57
2 Fortaleza EC 32 16.8 10.1 +6.7 56
3 Cuiaba 32 12.3 7.0 +5.3 47
4 Atletico Goianiense 32 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 32 11.9 8.5 +3.4 33
6 Vila Nova 32 13.3 10.1 +3.2 58
7 CRB 32 18.6 15.8 +2.8 51
8 Juventude 32 10.2 8.0 +2.2 59
9 Criciuma 32 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 32 13.7 12.6 +1.1 50
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 32 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 32 13.7 13.8 -0.1 38
14 Nautico Recife 32 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 32 11.8 13.1 -1.3 45
16 Operario-PR 32 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 32 9.1 14.2 -5.1 42
18 America Mineiro 32 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 32 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions