Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Ceara vs Criciuma

Ceara vs Criciuma Statistics & Analysis

Ceara Ceara
Oct 08, 2026 - 22:30
1 0.95
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 66%
Criciuma Criciuma
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Criciuma Ceara ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12431771

Closing Odds 2.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ceara win · Ceara 1–0 Criciuma
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.93 percentage points on Criciuma (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Criciuma (1X2) by about 14.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ceara (1X2) 23.3 36.6 -13.3
Draw (1X2) 30.0 30.6 -0.7
Criciuma (1X2) 46.8 32.8 +14.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 46.8% on Criciuma (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.8%. The difference — about 14.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us → kto br

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ceara (1X2) 2.6 2.55 +0.6
Draw (1X2) 3.2 3.05 +1.3
Criciuma (1X2) 2.7 2.85 -1.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Ceara vs Criciuma
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-08 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.3% · Draw 30.0% · Away 46.8%
  • xG (showing): Ceara 0.95 — Criciuma 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.39)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Criciuma
  • Model: 46.8% · Implied: 32.8% · Probability edge: +14.0 pts · Est. EV: +7.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.4% · No 51.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 59
2 Vila Nova 32 17 7 8 58
3 Fortaleza EC 32 15 11 6 56
4 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
5 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 32 14 10 8 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 45
12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 45
13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 America Mineiro 32 4 5 23 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 32 49 45 +4 51
3 Vila Nova 32 44 31 +13 58
4 Sport Recife 32 44 34 +10 50
5 São Bernardo 32 44 34 +10 45
6 Operario-PR 32 44 43 +1 48
7 Atletico Goianiense 32 40 30 +10 52
8 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
9 Nautico Recife 31 39 38 +1 42
10 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
11 Juventude 32 37 19 +18 59
12 Fortaleza EC 32 37 27 +10 56
13 Botafogo SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceara 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciuma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiaba 32 32 25 +7 47
17 Goias 32 32 40 -8 45
18 Avai 32 32 43 -11 33
19 America Mineiro 32 21 53 -32 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 17 68 -51 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 32 16.8 10.1 +6.7 56
3 Cuiaba 32 12.3 7.0 +5.3 47
4 Atletico Goianiense 32 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 32 11.9 8.5 +3.4 33
6 Vila Nova 32 13.3 10.1 +3.2 58
7 CRB 32 18.6 15.8 +2.8 51
8 Juventude 32 10.2 8.0 +2.2 59
9 Criciuma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 32 13.7 12.6 +1.1 50
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 32 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 32 13.7 13.8 -0.1 38
14 Nautico Recife 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 32 11.8 13.1 -1.3 45
16 Operario-PR 32 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 America Mineiro 32 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 32 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions