Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Novorizontino vs Goias

Novorizontino vs Goias Statistics & Analysis

Novorizontino Novorizontino
Oct 02, 2026 - 00:00
3 1.57
0 0.77
xG Accuracy: 55%
Goias Goias
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Novorizontino Novorizontino ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10964650

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Novorizontino win · Novorizontino 3–0 Goias
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Novorizontino vs Goias
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.9% · Draw 28.3% · Away 16.8%
  • xG (showing): Novorizontino 1.57 — Goias 0.77 (total xG ≈ 2.34)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.6% · Implied: 52.4% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +10.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 59
2 Vila Nova 31 17 6 8 57
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 53
5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 52
7 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 50
8 CRB 31 14 6 11 48
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 48
10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 46
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 45
12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 45
13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 31 46 44 +2 48
3 Vila Nova 31 44 31 +13 57
4 Sport Recife 32 44 34 +10 50
5 São Bernardo 32 44 34 +10 45
6 Operario-PR 32 44 43 +1 48
7 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
8 Atletico Goianiense 31 39 27 +12 52
9 Nautico Recife 31 39 38 +1 42
10 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
11 Juventude 32 37 19 +18 59
12 Fortaleza EC 31 36 27 +9 53
13 Botafogo SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceara 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciuma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiaba 31 32 25 +7 46
17 Goias 32 32 40 -8 45
18 Avai 32 32 43 -11 33
19 America Mineiro 31 21 52 -31 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 17 68 -51 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 31 16.8 10.1 +6.7 53
3 Cuiaba 31 12.3 7.0 +5.3 46
4 Atletico Goianiense 31 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 32 11.9 8.5 +3.4 33
6 Vila Nova 31 13.3 10.1 +3.2 57
7 CRB 31 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 32 10.2 8.0 +2.2 59
9 Criciuma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 32 13.7 12.6 +1.1 50
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 32 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 32 13.7 13.8 -0.1 38
14 Nautico Recife 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 32 11.8 13.1 -1.3 45
16 Operario-PR 32 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 America Mineiro 31 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 32 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions