Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Juventude vs Operario-PR

Juventude vs Operario-PR Statistics & Analysis

Juventude Juventude
Oct 02, 2026 - 23:45
3 1.37
0 0.93
xG Accuracy: 50%
Operario-PR Operario-PR
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Juventude Juventude ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10986791

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Juventude win · Juventude 3–0 Operario-PR
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Operario-PR (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Operario-PR (1X2) by about 5.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Juventude (1X2) 45.4 54.5 -9.0
Draw (1X2) 30.8 26.8 +4.0
Operario-PR (1X2) 23.8 18.8 +5.0
Over 2.5 goals 40.4 43.7 -3.3
Under 2.5 goals 59.6 56.3 +3.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.8% on Operario-PR (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.8%. The difference — about 5.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Juventude (1X2) 1.76 1.76 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.58 3.58 0.0
Operario-PR (1X2) 5.11 5.11 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.2 2.2 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Juventude vs Operario-PR
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 23:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.4% · Draw 30.8% · Away 23.8%
  • xG (showing): Juventude 1.37 — Operario-PR 0.93 (total xG ≈ 2.3)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.6% · Over 2.5 40.4%); BTTS No (Yes 46.8% · No 53.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.8% · No 53.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 31 16 8 7 56
2 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 53
5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 52
7 CRB 31 14 6 11 48
8 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 48
9 Sport Recife 31 12 11 8 47
10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 46
11 São Bernardo 31 12 9 10 45
12 Goias 31 12 6 13 42
13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 31 10 12 9 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo SP 30 9 8 13 35
17 Avai 31 8 6 17 30
18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 28
19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 3 4 24 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 31 46 44 +2 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 São Bernardo 31 43 32 +11 45
5 Operario-PR 31 43 41 +2 48
6 Sport Recife 31 42 33 +9 47
7 Atletico Goianiense 31 39 27 +12 52
8 Nautico Recife 31 39 38 +1 42
9 Londrina 31 39 45 -6 28
10 Athletic Club 31 37 35 +2 42
11 Fortaleza EC 31 36 27 +9 53
12 Juventude 31 35 19 +16 56
13 Botafogo SP 30 34 36 -2 35
14 Ceara 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciuma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiaba 31 32 25 +7 46
17 Goias 31 30 39 -9 42
18 Avai 31 30 42 -12 30
19 America Mineiro 31 21 52 -31 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 17 66 -49 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 31 16.8 10.1 +6.7 53
3 Cuiaba 31 12.3 7.0 +5.3 46
4 Atletico Goianiense 31 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 31 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 31 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 31 10.2 8.0 +2.2 56
9 Criciuma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 31 13.7 12.6 +1.1 47
11 Londrina 31 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 31 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 30 13.7 13.8 -0.1 35
14 Nautico Recife 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 31 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 31 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 America Mineiro 31 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 31 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 31 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions