Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Novorizontino vs Cuiaba

Novorizontino vs Cuiaba Statistics & Analysis

Novorizontino Novorizontino
Sep 13, 2026 - 21:30
1 1.03
1 0.84
xG Accuracy: 95%
Cuiaba Cuiaba
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Novorizontino Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461498

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Novorizontino 1–1 Cuiaba
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cuiaba (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Novorizontino (1X2) 37.5 56.7 -19.2
Draw (1X2) 35.4 26.5 +8.9
Cuiaba (1X2) 27.2 16.8 +10.3
Over 2.5 goals 28.8 41.0 -12.2
Under 2.5 goals 71.2 59.0 +12.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 71.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.0%. The difference — about 12.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Novorizontino (1X2) 1.69 1.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.62 3.62 0.0
Cuiaba (1X2) 5.69 5.69 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.35 2.35 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.63 1.63 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Novorizontino vs Cuiaba
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.5% · Draw 35.4% · Away 27.2%
  • xG (showing): Novorizontino 1.03 — Cuiaba 0.84 (total xG ≈ 1.87)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 71.2% · Over 2.5 28.8%); BTTS No (Yes 38.3% · No 61.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.3% · No 61.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Novorizontino 28 14 8 6 50
2 Juventude 28 14 8 6 50
3 Vila Nova 28 14 6 8 48
4 Fortaleza EC 28 13 9 6 48
5 Criciuma 28 13 8 7 47
6 Atletico Goianiense 28 12 10 6 46
7 Operario-PR 28 12 8 8 44
8 CRB 27 12 6 9 42
9 Sport Recife 27 10 11 6 41
10 Athletic Club 28 10 10 8 40
11 Cuiaba 28 9 13 6 40
12 Goias 28 11 6 11 39
13 São Bernardo 28 10 8 10 38
14 Nautico Recife 28 10 8 10 38
15 Ceara 28 8 8 12 32
16 Botafogo SP 28 8 7 13 31
17 Avai 28 8 6 14 30
18 Londrina 28 7 7 14 28
19 America Mineiro 28 4 5 19 17
20 Ponte Preta 28 2 4 22 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 28 48 25 +23 50
2 Vila Nova 28 40 31 +9 48
3 CRB 27 40 39 +1 42
4 São Bernardo 28 39 31 +8 38
5 Operario-PR 28 39 36 +3 44
6 Londrina 28 38 39 -1 28
7 Atletico Goianiense 28 36 26 +10 46
8 Sport Recife 27 36 26 +10 41
9 Nautico Recife 28 35 33 +2 38
10 Athletic Club 28 33 30 +3 40
11 Fortaleza EC 28 31 23 +8 48
12 Botafogo SP 28 31 35 -4 31
13 Juventude 28 30 17 +13 50
14 Ceara 28 29 36 -7 32
15 Avai 28 29 36 -7 30
16 Criciuma 28 28 25 +3 47
17 Goias 28 28 34 -6 39
18 Cuiaba 28 27 22 +5 40
19 America Mineiro 28 21 48 -27 17
20 Ponte Preta 28 16 62 -46 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 28 17.2 9.2 +8.0 50
2 Fortaleza EC 28 16.8 10.1 +6.7 48
3 Cuiaba 28 12.3 7.0 +5.3 40
4 Atletico Goianiense 28 15.2 11.1 +4.1 46
5 Avai 28 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 28 13.3 10.1 +3.2 48
7 CRB 27 18.6 15.8 +2.8 42
8 Juventude 28 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 28 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 27 13.7 12.6 +1.1 41
11 Londrina 28 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 28 12.6 12.6 0.0 38
13 Botafogo SP 28 13.7 13.8 -0.1 31
14 Nautico Recife 28 15.3 16.1 -0.8 38
15 Goias 28 11.8 13.1 -1.3 39
16 Operario-PR 28 12.8 16.2 -3.4 44
17 Ceara 28 9.1 14.2 -5.1 32
18 America Mineiro 28 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 28 11.9 19.2 -7.3 40
20 Ponte Preta 28 8.7 24.8 -16.1 10
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions