Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara

Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara Statistics & Analysis

Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense
Sep 10, 2026 - 00:30
2 1.62
1 0.87
xG Accuracy: 87%
Ceara Ceara
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6846920

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atletico Goianiense win · Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Ceara
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 1.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atletico Goianiense (1X2) 54.3 56.7 -2.4
Draw (1X2) 27.4 25.8 +1.6
Ceara (1X2) 18.3 17.5 +0.8
Over 2.5 goals 45.4 45.2 +0.2
Under 2.5 goals 54.6 54.8 -0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.8%. The difference — about 1.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atletico Goianiense (1X2) 1.69 1.69 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.71 3.71 0.0
Ceara (1X2) 5.46 5.46 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.3% · Draw 27.4% · Away 18.3%
  • xG (showing): Atletico Goianiense 1.62 — Ceara 0.87 (total xG ≈ 2.49)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Novorizontino 28 14 8 6 50
2 Juventude 28 14 8 6 50
3 Fortaleza EC 28 13 9 6 48
4 Vila Nova 27 14 5 8 47
5 Criciuma 28 13 8 7 47
6 Atletico Goianiense 28 12 10 6 46
7 Operario-PR 27 12 7 8 43
8 CRB 27 12 6 9 42
9 Sport Recife 27 10 11 6 41
10 Athletic Club 28 10 10 8 40
11 Cuiaba 28 9 13 6 40
12 Goias 28 11 6 11 39
13 São Bernardo 28 10 8 10 38
14 Nautico Recife 27 10 7 10 37
15 Ceara 28 8 8 12 32
16 Botafogo SP 28 8 7 13 31
17 Avai 27 8 5 14 29
18 Londrina 27 6 7 14 25
19 America Mineiro 28 4 5 19 17
20 Ponte Preta 27 2 4 21 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 28 48 25 +23 50
2 CRB 27 40 39 +1 42
3 Vila Nova 27 39 30 +9 47
4 São Bernardo 28 39 31 +8 38
5 Atletico Goianiense 28 36 26 +10 46
6 Sport Recife 27 36 26 +10 41
7 Operario-PR 27 36 33 +3 43
8 Athletic Club 28 33 30 +3 40
9 Nautico Recife 27 32 30 +2 37
10 Londrina 27 32 39 -7 25
11 Fortaleza EC 28 31 23 +8 48
12 Botafogo SP 28 31 35 -4 31
13 Juventude 28 30 17 +13 50
14 Ceara 28 29 36 -7 32
15 Criciuma 28 28 25 +3 47
16 Goias 28 28 34 -6 39
17 Avai 27 28 35 -7 29
18 Cuiaba 28 27 22 +5 40
19 America Mineiro 28 21 48 -27 17
20 Ponte Preta 27 16 56 -40 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 28 17.2 9.2 +8.0 50
2 Fortaleza EC 28 16.8 10.1 +6.7 48
3 Cuiaba 28 12.3 7.0 +5.3 40
4 Atletico Goianiense 28 15.2 11.1 +4.1 46
5 Avai 27 11.9 8.5 +3.4 29
6 Vila Nova 27 13.3 10.1 +3.2 47
7 CRB 27 18.6 15.8 +2.8 42
8 Juventude 28 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 28 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 27 13.7 12.6 +1.1 41
11 Londrina 27 10.4 9.6 +0.8 25
12 São Bernardo 28 12.6 12.6 0.0 38
13 Botafogo SP 28 13.7 13.8 -0.1 31
14 Nautico Recife 27 15.3 16.1 -0.8 37
15 Goias 28 11.8 13.1 -1.3 39
16 Operario-PR 27 12.8 16.2 -3.4 43
17 Ceara 28 9.1 14.2 -5.1 32
18 America Mineiro 28 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 28 11.9 19.2 -7.3 40
20 Ponte Preta 27 8.7 24.8 -16.1 10
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions