Statistics / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Gangneung City vs Siheung Citizen

Gangneung City vs Siheung Citizen Statistics & Analysis

Gangneung City Gangneung City
Oct 11, 2026 - 05:00
2 1.16
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 70%
Siheung Citizen Siheung Citizen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Siheung Citizen Gangneung City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13185535

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gangneung City win · Gangneung City 2–1 Siheung Citizen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Gangneung City vs Siheung Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Gangneung City 1.16 — Siheung Citizen 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 24 17 4 3 55
2 Pocheon 24 14 7 3 49
3 Daejeon Korail 24 12 5 7 41
4 Busan Transportation 24 11 7 6 40
5 Gyeongju HNP 24 9 9 6 36
6 Dangjin Citizen 24 10 4 10 34
7 Chuncheon 24 9 6 9 33
8 Gangneung City 24 8 6 10 30
9 Changwon City 24 7 8 9 29
10 Ulsan Citizen 24 8 4 12 28
11 Yeoju Sejong 24 7 7 10 28
12 Mokpo City 24 5 10 9 25
13 Yangpyeong 24 4 8 12 20
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 24 1 7 16 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 24 47 39 +8 34
2 Busan Transportation 24 42 30 +12 40
3 Chuncheon 24 42 37 +5 33
4 Pocheon 24 41 20 +21 49
5 Siheung Citizen 24 38 22 +16 55
6 Gyeongju HNP 24 36 32 +4 36
7 Daejeon Korail 24 33 19 +14 41
8 Yangpyeong 24 30 46 -16 20
9 Changwon City 24 27 31 -4 29
10 Yeoju Sejong 24 27 31 -4 28
11 Ulsan Citizen 24 25 28 -3 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 24 25 54 -29 10
13 Gangneung City 24 23 33 -10 30
14 Mokpo City 24 23 37 -14 25