Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen Statistics & Analysis

Daejeon Korail

Sep 11, 2026 - 10:00

0 1.45

1 1.15

xG Accuracy: 64%

Ulsan Citizen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Daejeon Korail Ulsan Citizen ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7020236

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ulsan Citizen win · Daejeon Korail 0–1 Ulsan Citizen

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ulsan Citizen (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ulsan Citizen (1X2) by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Daejeon Korail (1X2)	42.4	56.7	-14.3
Draw (1X2)	29.2	25.8	+3.4
Ulsan Citizen (1X2)	28.4	17.5	+10.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.7	+2.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.3	-2.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Ulsan Citizen (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.5%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Daejeon Korail (1X2)	1.64	1.64
Draw (1X2)	3.6	3.6
Ulsan Citizen (1X2)	5.31	5.31
Over 2.5 goals	2.07	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	1.74	1.74

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: K3 League
Fixture: Daejeon Korail vs Ulsan Citizen
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Daejeon Korail 1.45 — Ulsan Citizen 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 53.9% · Implied: 48.4% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Siheung Citizen	22	16	4	2	52
2	Pocheon	22	13	6	3	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	38
4	Busan Transportation	22	10	7	5	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32
6	Dangjin Citizen	22	9	4	9	31
7	Chuncheon	22	8	5	9	29
8	Ulsan Citizen	22	8	4	10	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	26
11	Yeoju Sejong	22	6	7	9	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	21
13	Yangpyeong	22	3	8	11	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dangjin Citizen	22	44	36	+8	31
2	Busan Transportation	22	39	26	+13	37
3	Chuncheon	22	39	35	+4	29
4	Pocheon	22	38	19	+19	45
5	Siheung Citizen	22	35	19	+16	52
6	Gyeongju HNP	22	32	29	+3	32
7	Daejeon Korail	22	31	17	+14	38
8	Yangpyeong	22	27	43	-16	17
9	Changwon City	22	24	27	-3	26
10	Yeoju Sejong	22	24	28	-4	25
11	Ulsan Citizen	22	23	24	-1	28
12	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	22	49	-27	10
13	Gangneung City	22	20	30	-10	27
14	Mokpo City	22	19	35	-16	21