Statistics / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Dangjin Citizen vs Chuncheon

Dangjin Citizen vs Chuncheon Statistics & Analysis

Dangjin Citizen Dangjin Citizen
Aug 29, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.44
4 1.16
xG Accuracy: 30%
Chuncheon Chuncheon
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dangjin Citizen Chuncheon ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5120699

Closing Odds 2.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Chuncheon win · Dangjin Citizen 3–4 Chuncheon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Dangjin Citizen (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dangjin Citizen (1X2) 41.9 40.8 +1.1
Draw (1X2) 29.3 25.9 +3.4
Chuncheon (1X2) 28.8 33.3 -4.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.8 -7.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.2 +7.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 44.2%. The difference — about 7.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Dangjin Citizen (1X2) 2.25 2.25 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
Chuncheon (1X2) 2.75 2.75 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.12 2.12 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Dangjin Citizen vs Chuncheon
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Dangjin Citizen 1.44 — Chuncheon 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +9.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Dangjin Citizen & Chuncheon!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 38
4 Busan Transportation 22 10 7 5 37
5 Gyeongju HNP 22 8 8 6 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 28
9 Gangneung City 22 7 6 9 27
10 Changwon City 22 6 8 8 26
11 Yeoju Sejong 22 6 7 9 25
12 Mokpo City 22 4 9 9 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 17
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 1 7 14 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 22 44 36 +8 31
2 Busan Transportation 22 39 26 +13 37
3 Chuncheon 22 39 35 +4 29
4 Pocheon 22 38 19 +19 45
5 Siheung Citizen 22 35 19 +16 52
6 Gyeongju HNP 22 32 29 +3 32
7 Daejeon Korail 22 31 17 +14 38
8 Yangpyeong 22 27 43 -16 17
9 Changwon City 22 24 27 -3 26
10 Yeoju Sejong 22 24 28 -4 25
11 Ulsan Citizen 22 23 24 -1 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 22 49 -27 10
13 Gangneung City 22 20 30 -10 27
14 Mokpo City 22 19 35 -16 21
K3 League South-Korea. K3 League Predictions