Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II Statistics & Analysis

Tallinna Kalev

Sep 18, 2026 - 14:30

2 1.30

xG Accuracy: 68%

Flora II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tallinna Kalev Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8201433

Closing Odds 2.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Tallinna Kalev 2–2 Flora II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tallinna Kalev (1X2)	35.2	41.2	-6.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.1	+5.5
Flora II (1X2)	35.2	34.7	+0.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.1%. The difference — about 5.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tallinna Kalev (1X2)	2.16	2.16
Draw (1X2)	3.69	3.69
Flora II (1X2)	2.56	2.56

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Esiliiga A
Fixture: Tallinna Kalev vs Flora II
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Tallinna Kalev 1.3 — Flora II 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 25.5% · Probability edge: +26.3 pts · Est. EV: +107.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	30	19	5	6	62
2	Viimsi	30	15	5	10	50
3	Flora II	30	14	6	10	48
4	Elva	30	14	6	10	48
5	FCI Levadia II	29	13	2	14	41
6	Maardu	28	12	5	11	41
7	Tallinna Kalev	29	10	7	12	37
8	Nõmme United II	30	10	6	14	36
9	FC Tallinn	30	8	8	14	32
10	Nõmme Kalju II	30	6	4	20	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	30	81	39	+42	62
2	Flora II	30	72	53	+19	48
3	FCI Levadia II	29	60	55	+5	41
4	Viimsi	30	56	31	+25	50
5	Tallinna Kalev	29	52	55	-3	37
6	Nõmme United II	30	50	62	-12	36
7	Elva	30	47	44	+3	48
8	Maardu	28	47	59	-12	41
9	FC Tallinn	30	39	65	-26	32
10	Nõmme Kalju II	30	38	79	-41	22