Statistics / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva

Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva Statistics & Analysis

Nõmme Kalju II Nõmme Kalju II
Jul 05, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 68%
Elva Elva
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Elva Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3056028

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Nõmme Kalju II 2–2 Elva
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 6.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nõmme Kalju II (1X2) 34.2 33.9 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.6 +6.1
Elva (1X2) 36.1 42.5 -6.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.6%. The difference — about 6.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Nõmme Kalju II (1X2) 2.62 2.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.77 3.77 0.0
Elva (1X2) 2.09 2.09 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Nõmme Kalju II 1.28 — Elva 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 28.6% · Probability edge: +23.2 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22