Statistics / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro / Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec Statistics & Analysis

Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
Aug 10, 2026 - 00:00
0 1.18
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 52%
Emelec Emelec
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Emelec Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2971174

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Emelec
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Pro
  • Fixture: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.1% · Draw 31.3% · Away 34.6%
  • xG (showing): Guayaquil City FC 1.18 — Emelec 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.37)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 42.2% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +11.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Liga Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 74
2 Macara 30 15 6 9 51
3 Aucas 30 14 8 8 50
4 Universidad Catolica 29 13 9 7 48
5 LDU de Quito 30 13 7 10 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 39
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Mushuc Runa SC 30 9 11 10 38
11 Emelec 30 10 9 11 36
12 Deportivo Cuenca 30 10 6 14 36
13 Orense SC 29 9 6 14 33
14 Tecnico Universitario 30 10 2 18 32
15 Delfin SC 30 7 7 16 28
16 Manta FC 30 5 6 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Independiente del Valle 30 73 33 +40 74
2 Universidad Catolica 29 49 26 +23 48
3 Macara 30 41 33 +8 51
4 Mushuc Runa SC 30 35 38 -3 38
5 Orense SC 29 35 45 -10 33
6 Aucas 30 33 28 +5 50
7 Libertad 30 33 34 -1 41
8 Guayaquil City FC 30 33 36 -3 39
9 Barcelona SC 30 32 25 +7 44
10 LDU de Quito 30 31 24 +7 46
11 Leones del Norte 30 31 32 -1 39
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 28 42 -14 32
13 Emelec 30 25 34 -9 36
14 Deportivo Cuenca 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Delfin SC 30 19 31 -12 28
16 Manta FC 30 17 42 -25 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Emelec 30 3.0 0.8 +2.2 36
2 Aucas 30 2.9 1.6 +1.3 50
3 LDU de Quito 30 4.2 3.1 +1.1 46
4 Macara 30 3.0 2.0 +1.0 51
5 Universidad Catolica 29 2.3 1.4 +0.9 48
6 Leones del Norte 30 2.6 1.9 +0.7 39
7 Mushuc Runa SC 30 2.3 1.7 +0.6 38
8 Delfin SC 30 1.7 1.4 +0.3 28
9 Guayaquil City FC 30 1.4 1.7 -0.3 39
10 Barcelona SC 30 3.4 4.1 -0.7 44
11 Manta FC 30 0.5 1.3 -0.8 21
12 Tecnico Universitario 30 0.6 1.7 -1.1 32
13 Orense SC 29 0.3 1.8 -1.5 33
14 Libertad 30 0.3 2.0 -1.7 41
15 Deportivo Cuenca 30 3.3 5.3 -2.0 36
16 Independiente del Valle 30 — — — 74