Statistics / Football / Russia. Youth Championship / Fakel U19 vs Krasnodar U19

Fakel U19 vs Krasnodar U19 Statistics & Analysis

Fakel U19 Fakel U19
Jul 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.14
2 1.46
xG Accuracy: 83%
Krasnodar U19 Krasnodar U19
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Krasnodar U19 Krasnodar U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 18:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2643978

Closing Odds 1.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Krasnodar U19 win · Fakel U19 1–2 Krasnodar U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Fakel U19 (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 27.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fakel U19 (1X2) 26.5 7.2 +19.3
Draw (1X2) 28.7 14.6 +14.1
Krasnodar U19 (1X2) 44.9 78.2 -33.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 75.9 -27.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 24.1 +27.7
BTTS Yes 53.8 57.5 -3.7
BTTS No 46.2 42.5 +3.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 24.1%. The difference — about 27.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fakel U19 (1X2) 12.5 12.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.15 6.15 0.0
Krasnodar U19 (1X2) 1.15 1.15 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.19 1.19 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 3.75 3.75 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.59 1.59 0.0
BTTS No 2.15 2.15 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Krasnodar U19; market prices Krasnodar U19 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Fakel U19 1.14 xG vs Krasnodar U19 1.46 → Krasnodar U19 44.9%
  • Market: Krasnodar U19 ~78.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Youth Championship Youth Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CSKA Moskva U19 24 18 2 4 56
2 Krasnodar U19 24 17 2 5 53
3 Zenit U19 24 16 3 5 51
4 Rodina Moscow U19 24 15 3 6 48
5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 24 14 5 5 47
6 Akademiya Konoplev U20 24 13 5 6 44
7 Almaz Antey U19 24 11 5 8 38
8 Spartak Moskva U19 24 7 10 7 31
9 Rostov U19 24 9 4 11 31
10 Dinamo Moskva U19 24 9 2 13 29
11 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 24 7 3 14 24
12 Chertanovo U20 24 6 5 13 23
13 Ural U20 24 6 4 14 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod U19 24 5 4 15 19
15 Rubin Kazan U20 24 4 3 17 15
16 Fakel U19 24 3 4 17 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CSKA Moskva U19 24 77 33 +44 56
2 Krasnodar U19 24 72 36 +36 53
3 Zenit U19 24 68 32 +36 51
4 Rodina Moscow U19 24 62 31 +31 48
5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 24 59 37 +22 47
6 Akademiya Konoplev U20 24 51 37 +14 44
7 Almaz Antey U19 24 46 51 -5 38
8 Dinamo Moskva U19 24 39 46 -7 29
9 Spartak Moskva U19 24 38 41 -3 31
10 Rostov U19 24 36 42 -6 31
11 Chertanovo U20 24 33 55 -22 23
12 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 24 32 56 -24 24
13 Ural U20 24 29 51 -22 22
14 Nizhny Novgorod U19 24 29 64 -35 19
15 Rubin Kazan U20 24 26 59 -33 15
16 Fakel U19 24 25 51 -26 13