Statistics / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL 2 / Dulwich Hill vs Mt Druitt Town

Dulwich Hill vs Mt Druitt Town Statistics & Analysis

Dulwich Hill Dulwich Hill
Jul 25, 2026 - 07:00
4 1.16
0 1.44
xG Accuracy: 31%
Mt Druitt Town Mt Druitt Town
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mt Druitt Town Dulwich Hill ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453204

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dulwich Hill win · Dulwich Hill 4–0 Mt Druitt Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mt Druitt Town (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Dulwich Hill (1X2) 31.9 39.2 -7.3
Draw (1X2) 28.3 25.7 +2.6
Mt Druitt Town (1X2) 39.9 35.1 +4.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.3 -11.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.7 +11.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.7%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Dulwich Hill (1X2) 2.27 2.27 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.46 3.46 0.0
Mt Druitt Town (1X2) 2.53 2.53 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.54 1.54 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.24 2.24 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: New South Wales NPL 2
  • Fixture: Dulwich Hill vs Mt Druitt Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 07:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 28.3% · Away 39.9%
  • xG (showing): Dulwich Hill 1.16 — Mt Druitt Town 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.6% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
New South Wales NPL 2 New South Wales NPL 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Blacktown Spartans 30 21 6 3 69
2 Northern Tigers 30 17 8 5 59
3 Bankstown City Lions 30 17 5 8 56
4 Canterbury Bankstown 30 15 6 9 51
5 Hills Brumbies 30 14 7 9 49
6 Macarthur Rams 30 14 6 10 48
7 Hakoah Sydney City 30 11 10 9 43
8 Rydalmere Lions 30 11 8 11 41
9 Bulls Academy 30 11 5 14 38
10 Inter Lions 30 10 5 15 35
11 Hurstville FC 30 9 6 15 33
12 Central Coast II 30 8 7 15 31
13 Dulwich Hill 30 7 9 14 30
14 Newcastle Jets II 30 6 11 13 29
15 Prospect United 30 4 14 12 26
16 Mt Druitt Town 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Blacktown Spartans 30 79 36 +43 69
2 Canterbury Bankstown 30 71 53 +18 51
3 Bankstown City Lions 30 65 45 +20 56
4 Hills Brumbies 30 62 45 +17 49
5 Hakoah Sydney City 30 62 50 +12 43
6 Northern Tigers 30 55 30 +25 59
7 Newcastle Jets II 30 55 73 -18 29
8 Bulls Academy 30 52 50 +2 38
9 Central Coast II 30 46 67 -21 31
10 Rydalmere Lions 30 43 46 -3 41
11 Hurstville FC 30 42 55 -13 33
12 Macarthur Rams 30 40 36 +4 48
13 Dulwich Hill 30 40 58 -18 30
14 Inter Lions 30 39 54 -15 35
15 Mt Druitt Town 30 35 69 -34 23
16 Prospect United 30 33 52 -19 26