Statistics / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL / Marconi Stallions vs UNSW

Marconi Stallions vs UNSW Statistics & Analysis

Marconi Stallions Marconi Stallions
Jun 21, 2026 - 05:00
1 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
UNSW UNSW
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Marconi Stallions Marconi Stallions ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 19:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3209070

Closing Odds 1.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Marconi Stallions win · Marconi Stallions 1–0 UNSW
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.78 percentage points on Marconi Stallions (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on UNSW (1X2) by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Marconi Stallions (1X2) 48.1 71.5 -23.4
Draw (1X2) 27.1 17.3 +9.8
UNSW (1X2) 24.8 11.3 +13.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.0 -10.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 41.0 +10.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.8% on UNSW (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.3%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Marconi Stallions (1X2) 1.29 1.3 +0.8
Draw (1X2) 5.18 5.38 -0.3
UNSW (1X2) 7.78 8.24 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.58 -0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.26 2.27 +0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: New South Wales NPL
  • Fixture: Marconi Stallions vs UNSW
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.1% · Draw 27.1% · Away 24.8%
  • xG (showing): Marconi Stallions 1.37 — UNSW 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
New South Wales NPL New South Wales NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 21 5 4 68
2 Sydney United 30 20 4 6 64
3 Marconi Stallions 30 19 5 6 62
4 Sutherland Sharks 30 14 4 12 46
5 Manly United 30 12 8 10 44
6 Rockdale City Suns 30 13 4 13 43
7 NWS Spirit 30 12 5 13 41
8 SD Raiders 30 12 5 13 41
9 Sydney II 30 11 8 11 41
10 Western Sydney W. II 30 11 5 14 38
11 Wollongong Wolves 30 11 5 14 38
12 St George City FA 30 10 7 13 37
13 Blacktown City 30 8 8 14 32
14 UNSW 30 9 5 16 32
15 St. George Saints 30 8 3 19 27
16 Sydney Olympic 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 66 35 +31 68
2 Western Sydney W. II 30 55 49 +6 38
3 Marconi Stallions 30 50 22 +28 62
4 Rockdale City Suns 30 48 42 +6 43
5 Sydney United 30 47 20 +27 64
6 Sutherland Sharks 30 46 38 +8 46
7 SD Raiders 30 44 49 -5 41
8 Blacktown City 30 41 48 -7 32
9 Manly United 30 39 35 +4 44
10 Sydney II 30 38 43 -5 41
11 UNSW 30 38 49 -11 32
12 NWS Spirit 30 37 38 -1 41
13 Wollongong Wolves 30 35 43 -8 38
14 Sydney Olympic 30 32 62 -30 23
15 St George City FA 30 30 46 -16 37
16 St. George Saints 30 28 55 -27 27