Statistics / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL / Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney W. II

Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney W. II Statistics & Analysis

Wollongong Wolves Wollongong Wolves
Aug 23, 2026 - 05:00
3 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 45%
Western Sydney W. II Western Sydney W. II
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wollongong Wolves Wollongong Wolves ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4357143

Closing Odds 1.97
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Wollongong Wolves win · Wollongong Wolves 3–0 Western Sydney W. II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.29 percentage points on Wollongong Wolves (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Wollongong Wolves (1X2) 38.0 47.1 -9.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 23.2 +6.4
Western Sydney W. II (1X2) 32.4 29.7 +2.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.1 -15.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.9 +15.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 15.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Wollongong Wolves (1X2) 2.0 1.97 +1.3
Draw (1X2) 3.9 4.0 -0.3
Western Sydney W. II (1X2) 2.99 3.13 -1.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.44 1.46 -0.5
Under 2.5 goals 2.63 2.61 +0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: New South Wales NPL
  • Fixture: Wollongong Wolves vs Western Sydney W. II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Wollongong Wolves 1.36 — Western Sydney W. II 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +14.6 pts · Est. EV: +35.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Wollongong Wolves & Western Sydney W. II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
New South Wales NPL New South Wales NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 21 5 4 68
2 Sydney United 30 20 4 6 64
3 Marconi Stallions 30 19 5 6 62
4 Sutherland Sharks 30 14 4 12 46
5 Manly United 30 12 8 10 44
6 Rockdale City Suns 30 13 4 13 43
7 NWS Spirit 30 12 5 13 41
8 SD Raiders 30 12 5 13 41
9 Sydney II 30 11 8 11 41
10 Western Sydney W. II 30 11 5 14 38
11 Wollongong Wolves 30 11 5 14 38
12 St George City FA 30 10 7 13 37
13 Blacktown City 30 8 8 14 32
14 UNSW 30 9 5 16 32
15 St. George Saints 30 8 3 19 27
16 Sydney Olympic 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 66 35 +31 68
2 Western Sydney W. II 30 55 49 +6 38
3 Marconi Stallions 30 50 22 +28 62
4 Rockdale City Suns 30 48 42 +6 43
5 Sydney United 30 47 20 +27 64
6 Sutherland Sharks 30 46 38 +8 46
7 SD Raiders 30 44 49 -5 41
8 Blacktown City 30 41 48 -7 32
9 Manly United 30 39 35 +4 44
10 Sydney II 30 38 43 -5 41
11 UNSW 30 38 49 -11 32
12 NWS Spirit 30 37 38 -1 41
13 Wollongong Wolves 30 35 43 -8 38
14 Sydney Olympic 30 32 62 -30 23
15 St George City FA 30 30 46 -16 37
16 St. George Saints 30 28 55 -27 27